Analysis of Coke Price and Future Trends: Focusing on the Seventh

Analysis of Coke Price and Future Trends: Focusing on the Seventh - round Price Increase

On June 12, the mainstream coking enterprises sent a letter to increase the price of coke, with a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which is planned to be implemented at 0:00 on June 15. This is the seventh - round price increase of coke, and the continuous price increase reflects the complex situation of the current coke market.

Capacity Aspect

From the perspective of coking enterprises, according to Mysteel's survey, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises has been declining recently. It has dropped to 75.43%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points month - on - month, and the daily coke output has decreased to 649,400 tons. The main reason is the tight supply of coking coal. The high cost has compressed the profit space of coking enterprises. The average profit of coking enterprises in Shanxi has turned negative, reaching - 1 yuan/ton. Under such circumstances, coking enterprises have the intention of reducing production, which will lead to a further tightening of coke supply in the later stage.

Market Aspect

In the short term, the coke market is showing a strong trend. The futures main contract J2609 reached a nearly two - year high of 2,126 yuan/ton intraday on June 12, and the closing price on the 12th was 2,078 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 5% in the past two trading days. In the spot market, the ex - factory prices of coke in main producing areas are also rising. For example, the price of first - grade dry - quenched coke in Tangshan has increased from 1,955 yuan/ton to 2,065 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Changzhi has increased from 1,755 yuan/ton to 1,865 yuan/ton.

Source of Goods Aspect

The source of coke goods is currently in a tight state. Although the inventory of coking enterprises has increased by 44,800 tons, this is a “voluntary inventory accumulation due to reluctance to sell”. Coking enterprises control the shipping rhythm because of the high cost of coking coal. The overall inventory of each link is still at a low level in history, and the short - term shortage pattern of goods has not changed. At the same time, the port inventory is also in a state of destocking, reflecting the active shipping of the trading link.

Future Trends

In the short term, the price of coke is expected to continue to be strong. The supply of coking coal is still restricted by strict safety supervision in Shanxi. It is difficult to reverse the tight supply pattern in a short time, which strongly supports the cost of coke. On the demand side, the daily pig iron output of 247 steel plants is at a high level of 2.4086 million tons, and the steel plants have a strong demand for coke, and there is still a replenishment demand. It is expected that the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is expected to be 1,850 - 1,920 yuan/ton in the near future.

However, in the medium and long term, the coke market may face certain pressure. The weak demand for steel is difficult to be fundamentally improved, because the terminal real - estate data is poor, and the construction and new start - up areas have declined. The high - operating rate of steel plants is not sustainable, which will limit the upward space of coke prices. Overall, the coke market is expected to show a differentiated situation of “strong in the short - term and under pressure in the medium and long - term”.