China Semi-Coke & Coal Industry Daily Update (Sep 9)

### Raw Coal Side

Domestic lump coal auction prices dropped 254.11 RMT/MT week-on-week. Downstream calcium carbide manufacturers cut purchasing prices of semi-coke medium & small fines by 270 RMT/MT. Thermal coal markets in Shaanxi & Ordos softened on weak buying interest; Bohai port coal stayed firm but end-user consumption dipped, with wide price gaps between buyers and sellers. Import Indonesian coal remains tight in supply yet overseas buyers resist high quotations, leading to sluggish transactions.

### Regional Semi-Coke Price Overview

Major production bases including Shenmu, Fugu and Ordos keep semi-coke prices steady, with medium/small lumps at 1280-1350 RMT/MT ex-factory (tax-inclusive). Xinjiang sources carry far lower costs at 600-950 RMT/MT. High-quality low-sulfur semi-coke at Tianjin Port holds firm at 1560-1610 RMT/MT on high fixed carbon and low ash premium. Huge price gaps exist for coke breeze, ranging from 300 RMT/MT for low-grade fines to 950-1200 RMT/MT for high-FC low-sulfur products.

### Semi-Coke Market Forecast

1. Short-term (Late September): Semi-coke will fluctuate weakly on sliding raw coal costs and dull demand from calcium carbide & magnesium sectors. Limited downside risk exists thanks to strict mine safety inspections and low raw coal inventories; buyers only place rigid orders without large advance stockpiling.

2. Q4 Outlook: Demand will rebound starting October as chemical plants resume full operation, while ferroalloy and construction sectors pick up. Overseas steel mills in Central Asia & Southeast Asia launch winter stocking, lifting export demand for premium semi-coke. Meanwhile, winter safety audits will restrict coal output to prop up raw material costs. Semi-coke manufacturers maintain flexible production based on sales, no new large capacity to flood the market, so tight supply will push up high-grade semi-coke prices once demand recovers.

3. Long-term Trend: Premium high-FC low-sulfur semi-coke gains wider substitution usage for metallurgical coke & PCI coal under stricter environmental rules. Rising global overseas demand offers sustained digestion for domestic output, making top-tier semi-coke far more resilient against price slumps than low-grade breeze.

### Downstream Derivative Markets

Calcium carbide softened with Wuhai prices down 100 RMT/MT to 2650 RMT/MT; power rationing in Inner Mongolia disrupts supply, with stabilization expected in October after chemical plant restarts. Ferrosilicon stays flat with muted trading, magnesium ingot prices face pressure from weak end demand despite cost support. Medium-temperature coal tar in Shaanxi trades steadily at 4200-4250 RMT/MT.

### Other Metallurgical Coal Varieties

PCI coal, sinter coal and anthracite show divergent trends. Sinter coal holds firm on slow mine restarts and steady rigid demand; Yangquan anthracite rose 200 RMT/MT amid tight supply from safety shutdowns. Steel mills plan pre-holiday stock-up to underpin coal prices in the near term.

### Overall Market Conclusion

Coal chains face short-term downward pressure from cheaper raw coal, yet Q4 will bring multiple bull drivers: chemical plant restarts, overseas winter stocking and winter coal supply curbs. The semi-coke market is projected to follow a "low early, high late" trajectory, with high-quality low-sulfur grades enjoying stronger upward momentum. Metallurgical coal varieties will stay resilient on constrained mine output, keeping the whole industry in differentiated volatile movement.

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